Who Will Be The Better Pro: Stephen Strasburg or Mike Leake?
By John Klima
June 5, 2009
(photo: San Diego State)
- (photo: ASU)
Mike Leake picked a bad year to have a good year. The Arizona State right-hander isn’t the most physically imposing pitcher. He could be the guy walking his dog down the street.
In a college season and a draft defined by the star-making status of Stephen Strasburg, Leake’s success has been achieved with less fanfare, less velocity and less stuff. He’ll be drafted in the first round, but few believe he will be a better pro than Strasburg.
Yet Leake shows signs that he has a chance to be a better pro, even if radar guns bury him and he’s been overshadowed by a media myth. Velocity doesn’t win in the big leagues. Movement, location, changing speeds, four pitches and pitching know-how do. In these respects, the little Arizona State right-hander who can touch 92 but get outs with 90 is virtually superior to his more heralded counterpart.
The comparisons flow.
Strasburg was cocooned at San Diego State. The school unleashed him for the early-season media frenzy and then pulled him back. Every Friday start was good for at least 10 strikeouts, except for an odd six-strikeout, 10 fly-ball effort against college baseball power UC Davis.
You have to find a brave person who is willing to take Leake over Strasburg. That’s because the two right-handers represent two different basic belief systems – power stuff without mechanics versus mechanics with precision and movement. The problem with power is that it distorts the complete picture.
The majority of scouts will always be seduced by velocity and stuff. They will be lulled into collective thought and fail to take all outcomes into consideration. Strasburg’s major league image has been minted before he signs for one, and if you let the cable TV talking heads think for you, one might suspect Strasburg pitches at 101 mph. Who knew that Scott Boras was a cue-card guy in Bristol?
In reality, Strasburg pitches at 94 and he’s not going to be pitching at 96 in the majors. What you see is what you get, and if you see more, be wary. This is not a high school arm with projection. There is, in fact, no projection with Strasburg. In basic scouting terms, if you can get past the gun, this is a pitcher with a bad-body history. His mechanics can be questioned, but won’t be when he signs. He hasn’t faced anyone yet, looked like a bad athlete on a ball hit past the mound at Irvine and did not command at the elite major league level he is billed to possess against a lineup of college hitters.
Strasburg’s media line was that he had never seen scouting video of Virginia. So what? Do you think they might be trying to lay off the curveball? If you’re tepid of Virginia, you’ll love the National League East.
But Strasburg did have 15 strikeouts and Phil Nevin loves him.
Strasburg had 19 walks in 109 innings, and Leake has 20 walks in 124 2/3 innings, but let’s not look at the numbers for a moment.
College umpires are…well, I’m not sure what they do for a living, but it isn’t in the major leagues. Strasburg’s command is big league average on a good day and slightly below-average on an off day, regardless of what the numbers look like. It will take him 100 pitches to get through five innings in the big leagues.
Strasburg gave up 65 hits in 109 innings. Leake has allowed 71 hits in 124 2/3 innings and has most certainly faced more pro-quality hitters this season than Strasburg has.
Among the better professional-caliber hitters in the Pac-10 this season were Brett Jackson, Grant Green, Ricky Oropesa, Ryan Ortiz and Casey Haerther. It’s not the same as going through a big league lineup, but it is safe to say that Leake faced more guys who will be in the big leagues sooner.
That doesn’t necessarily equate into professional success, but it says more about his college-level success than it does about Strasburg’s.
That’s not to say Leake hasn’t faced some stiffs. Of his eight double-digit strikeout games, (compared to Strasburg’s 12) Leake has victories against Holy Cross, Oral Roberts, and the streaky and sometimes hapless Pac-10 lineups of Oregon, UCLA, Arizona, Washington and Washington State. Some of his numbers are inflated, too.
Looking at the numbers of the two starters, there are small hints that indicate that Leake is around the plate more than Strasburg is even though his power stuff is a notch below. Leake has one wild pitch to Strasburg’s 11. Strasburg hit three batters, Leake hit 13. So which is it? The answer lies in which pitcher works inside more often. To get to the heart of that, you have to study the way the two approach pitching.
Leake can’t afford to not work inside, not as a college pitcher, and he knows he can’t win if he can’t pitch inside as a pro. His fastballs are cutters and sinkers. His fastball movement is superior to Strasburg’s. He needs the inner half and he can command his fastball enough to push people off and then go outer half. He’s got a slider with tight rotation and a curveball and change-up to work with. This is the making of a four-pitch starter without one exceptional pitch. He is not married to the strikeout and he will not be a fly ball pitcher, also positive signs for a young pro.
“I try to just hit my spots but not try to worry too much about being too pin point with my pitches,” Leake told Baseball Beginnings this season. “I want to minimize the amount of pitches I throw in a game. Ground balls are fine.”
In watching Strasburg’s start against Virginia, efficiency is something that his stuff has not required him to learn in college baseball in the same way it has shaped Leake. It’s pretty easy to guess with Strasburg: fastball or curveball. These are the makings of a two-pitch starter who is in trouble when he can’t find one on a given day.
He’s not throwing a Roy Halladay curveball. He’s throwing a curveball that should be harder and tighter for a power pitcher.
Strasburg still reminds me of Brad Penny in physique, stuff and mechanics. Penny hasn’t been a bad pro, but his health hasn’t made him reliable. The way Strasburg is sold, we’re supposed to believe he’ll be a 20-game winner for the next 10 years.
The letdown is unavoidable. He’ll never have a chance to breathe. He’ll be called a savior. The flavor of the month is going to melt unless he’s anything less than an immediate ace.
This gets to the heart of the issue. Leake has no projection left, either. He’s not going to be a No. 1 starter in the big leagues, but it doesn’t mean he doesn’t have the potential to be a better pro. He’s probably going to become a ballsy little right-hander who is a No. 3 starter. His arm action is better than Strasburg’s. He gets on top of the ball with more consistency. In short, everything about Leake indicates that he is built for the long haul more than Strasburg is. Leake may not be a meteor, but he may linger in the sky past dawn.
Heart can carry you in college baseball, but only stuff plays in the majors. Greg Maddux didn’t win with stuff. He had it when he was younger, but pitched for the last decade with movement, location and changing speeds. Leake will pitch at 90-91. It’s not that much, but it’ll be just enough for him to hang around. And historically speaking, 12 pitchers were taken before Maddux in the 1984 draft, when he was the third player chosen in the second round. Strasburg and a handful of high school pitchers will be drafted before Leake.
Leake could be the better pro because he will arrive in the major leagues better prepared in almost every respect. He understands his limitations and has won within them. He’s the classic pitcher who has been told at every stop that he doesn’t throw hard enough.
Drafted out of Fallbrook High in San Diego in 2006, he went to Arizona State to pitch with Pat Murphy in his ear. It’s hard to be mentally soft when you’re a pitcher like Leake. He’s always had to be more mentally tough than Strasburg, who when he signs, will walk into a firestorm of expectations. Either that or he will kill time in Independent baseball for a year, where perhaps Matt Harrington can change his tires.
That’s the factor that a radar gun can’t predict. There have been guys with great stuff who were not successful pitchers and pitchers with adequate stuff who found a way to last for 10 years and win 100 games. Only time will tell, but when Strasburg can no longer light up a radar gun and will have to learn to win with less, Leake will have been doing that for an entire career.
Read Mike Leake Q&A
Read Mike Leake Scouting Report
Watch Mike Leake Video
Read Fall 2009 Mike Leake Scouting Report
Mike Leake Drafted by the Cincinnati Reds
Read Reds sign Leake
Watch Stephen Strasburg Video
Stephen Strasburg Drafted by the Washington Nationals
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I find it interesting that Tony Gwynn has been far more subdued in his praise of Strausburg than the baseball press, saying that the kid still has alot to learn about pitching. Heard Tony say the other day that major league players won’t swing at pitches out of the zone the way collegiate hitters do, and that Strausburg will have to learn how to get hitters out by pitching in the strike zone to succeed at the next level.