Baseball Beginnings

By John Klima
June 7, 2009

The chain link fence at Cal State Northridge is so close to the field that whispers and grumbles carry as long and as far as the metal-bat home runs rocket through the smoggy air and carry over the brick walls.

Grant Green’s batting practice swings and at-bats that Saturday afternoon in early May were scrutinized by a number of national-level scouts, including a full house from the Washington Nationals, who made a western road trip out of the weekend, catching Stephen Strasburg on Friday night and driving up to Northridge on Saturday morning to see Green.

The grumbles from different teams are usually the same: where’s the power?

The next question is can he stay at shortstop? The popular answer this spring became, true or not, he’ll have to move.

Green was doing little things, like going up the middle to stay true to his swing, but for many observers, it hasn’t been enough, which begs the question: Is a prospect less of a player if he’s more of who he is than who you want him to be?

The at-bats I saw in May were tenser than the relaxed at-bats in April. When a player tries to do more, he shows you less.

What is Green going to show as a pro? At best he is an all-star and at worst he is an everyday player. He’s too good of a hitter to be a bench player. That’s a good set of choices to have and it is what makes him a No. 1 pick.

Green hit .374 in 211 at-bats, which is fine at that level. He had four home runs among his 28 extra-base hits, production which indicated he was slapping the ball more than driving it. Green keeps reminding me of two right-handed hitting middle infielders, Michael Young or Ian Kinsler. Sometimes he reminds me of one more than the other. Either model is a best-case scenario for him.

Young hit for more power as a collegian, and in 1997, he hit .359 with 12 home runs at UC-Santa Barbara, but he also did it in an inferior conference at a park that does not have lights and plays breezy day games with hot co-eds in attendance.

Kinsler, who changed schools three times, hit .335 with six home runs before a season-ending foot injury. He made his pro debut playing second base in the Northwest League in 2003, seeing then 17-year-old Felix Hernandez routinely hit very legitimate triple digits. 

So there are two models for the right-handed hitting Green to fall into, under the premise that Young’s and Kinsler’s power came faster. Green said he believes the “old man” strength will come in time.

But college stats can be misleading, which leads us to another possible Green comparison.

He could be a right-handed version of Adam Kennedy, who played at this very Cal State Northridge. In 1997, Kennedy, then a college shortstop, was a beast.

Playing a cobbled-together independent schedule, Kennedy hit his way into the first round with offensive totals that dwarfed Young, Kinsler and Green: .482, 32 doubles, 26 home runs, 99 RBIs and 22 stolen bases.

Pretty good, but don’t forget that a teammate named Jose Miranda hit .407 with 25 home runs and Andy Wilson, Pirate shortstop Jack Wilson’s older brother, hit .340. Kennedy was a surprise first-rounder, going 20^th to the Cardinals, behind hitters J.D. Drew, Troy Glaus, Vernon Wells and Lance Berkman.

College stats might enlighten the scouting, but it still comes down to the player. Green changed his swing in college, which means Green has been scouted while he’s figuring it out. This is a good indicator that the guy can be a player. Hitting .374 while figuring things out should be considered a good sign, rather than a detriment, regardless of what kind of player he becomes.

“I’m starting to get little kinks here and there, but since I’ve only been working on it for a year and a half, I kind of don’t know exactly how to fix things like I could with my old swing I had my whole life,” Green told Baseball Beginnings in March. “So the swing is coming here and there and it’s getting better and better.”

Defensively, Green can stay at short if you can accept adequate range and arm. He is just athletic enough to stay. Despite 18 errors, he should field what he gets to. Perhaps he will become that right-handed hitting Kennedy and move over to second base. Evan Longoria comparisons are a reach and not fair to the kind of player Green has shown he is. And based on recent months, we wouldn’t wish Troy Tulowitzki upon him.

Green stole 16 bases. As a runner, he’s not a burner and he’s not a clogger. He won’t have 30 home run power, but he might hit 15.

So as the scouts grumbled, Green grounded into 11 double plays and his elevated status took some hits this spring. It gets down to the real question, not about hype, not about what he did or didn’t do, but what he is.

Green will be an everyday major league starter because he can hit. Take the results or leave them, but it’s a good bet to expect that he’ll hit enough to stay. 

Read Grant Green Q&A
Read Grant Green Scouting report
Watch Grant Green Scouting video
Watch Grant Green Scouting video Part 2
Watch Grant Green vs. Gerrit Cole video
Oakland A’s Select Grant Green

Categories: 2009 Draft
Tags: Grant Green, USC