Baseball Beginnings

Posted By John Klima on November 27, 2009

When we last saw Mike Leake here at Baseball Beginnings, he was pitching for Arizona State on the road to a season that got him drafted in the first round, No. 8 overall in 2009. We picked Leake up again recently in-person at the Arizona Fall League, where we caught three innings and a bullpen.

Leake is a classic example of what the great scout and former big league second baseman Gene Handley meant when he said, “The gun is a crutch.”

Indeed, Leake’s power is pedestrian. His fastball ranges only from 89-91, which is commonplace. His modest frame isn’t going to grow, but he’s got long and lean legs that are components of his above-average body control. That body command and precision, his mechanics, are what help create Leake’s deception. His command and movement are separating factors for him. Leake has cultivated every advantage available to him, including how he hides the ball through his windup and how much downhill plane he is capable of creating.

Scouts love velocity, sometimes more than they should, but major league hitters don’t impress that easily. Leake’s power and frame might be modest, but what he lacks in stuff he makes up for elsewhere. It won’t be enough to make him a huge winner or a staff ace, but will be enough to make him a very reliable middle-of-the-rotation starter who will eat innings and win 12-15 games a year. You might go to sleep on this guy, wake up, and see that he has 200 victories 15 years later.

Leake’s exceptional command is what will allow him to pitch with his fastball off his change-up and vice versa, depending on his mood and what he thinks will best fool the hitter. He’ll be able to pull this off in the big leagues. His change-up is 81-83 and he’s got an idea of how to alternate the pressure points on his finger tips. He’s got a slider that he’ll roll for a ground ball, at 88.

Leake is going to be compared frequently to Greg Maddux, but there are a few differences. Maddux had more power than Leake does at this age. A better comparison at this age might be Mike Mussina, who still had more power at the same age than Leake does, but only one step above. Mussina would occasionally bump 93 as a kid; Leake never will. But their concepts of winning without above-average power remain very similiar.

Leake’s fastball and change-up are his best pitches with above-average command and movement on each pitch. His fastball has tailing action on right-handed hitters. Moxie can’t replace stuff, but savvy plays better in the big leagues than it does in the minor leagues or on the amateur trail. You can see our previous content on Leake after his updated grades.

Fastball velocity               50/50
Fastball movement          55/65
Fastball command           50/70
Change-up velocity        50/50
Change-up movement   50/65
Change-up command    50/70
Slider velocity                  45/45
Slider movement            45/50
Slider command              45/50

Adjusted overall future potential: 52

What the Grades Mean

Watch Mike Leake Video
Read Mike Leake Q&A
Read Mike Leake Scouting Report
Read Who Will be the Better Pro

Categories: 2009 Draft, 2009 Minor Leagues
Tags: ASU, Cincinnati Reds, Mike Leake