Baseball Beginnings

By John Klima
February 26, 2010

Gerrit Cole threw three bad pitches in the first inning and two very good ones. He hit three Vanderbilt batters in the opening minutes, each with fastballs, and you have to give Cole credit for one thing. Not many pitchers can say they drilled the bases loaded. And not many pitchers can get out of a jam the way he did Friday night against Sonny Gray and Vanderbilt.

This situation provided a scenario where Cole’s two best weapons could be seen in a game situation. Cole showed how these will be weapons he will use as a major league pitcher. Most people will tell you that the best pitch Cole threw in the first inning was his high heat, a 99-mile per hour fastball for a strikeout to end the inning. Surely, there are only a handful of pitchers at any level who can reach back and find 99 to escape a jam. For me, the movement on that pitch was just as important as the velocity. Flat 99 MPH fastballs get hit in the big leagues almost every single time, but Cole’s fastball had late rise and cut into the inner half. That’s a big league out pitch.

More telling was the slider he used to strike out Aaron Westlake. A left-handed hitting sophomore who led the SEC with a .377 batting average in 2009, Cole carved Westlake with fastballs at 96 and 97, came back with a 92 fastball he basically used as a change-up, and then threw a hard 86 slider that was easily the best breaking ball Cole threw in the game.

Overall, Cole’s velocity sat 94-96 on the high end with that 99 in the first inning. His secondary fastball sat at 91-92, which he uses in place of a true straight change. For me, he will need a third pitch as a pro starter, and it should be a change-up, because as good as his power stuff is across the board, he’ll at least need it as a token look and something that suggests speed separation. His slider sat 84-86, consistently hard with shape, bite and downhill on it, and is a premium weapon for him.

Occasionally, Cole drops his arm slot a little bit to give a ¾ look and add more sweep to his slider. It’s not bad for an occasional look but also speaks to the lack of a true third pitch. It’s not a deal-breaking weakness, but it is something that will come up for him in pro ball.

Cole has one of the best “big arms” in the country, without a doubt. I would rate his strengths as fastball velocity and movement, but caution that his overall fastball command needs to improve to retain efficiency as a major league pitcher. His slider is his best pitch, for the combination of velocity, movement and control. All factors considered, Cole is right where he should be in his developmental process.

Cole also appears to have lost some weight since 2009. It hasn’t cost him any of his usual power, but when seen from the side, Cole still tends to be a little too upright and stiff for his long-standing good. It’s a minor point right now because no detriments are seen in the results, but it would be a longer term worry for me if it’s not addressed as a pro because it will tend to put undue stress on his elbow. This also could have a negative effect on overall control as a future pro. Cole threw 95 pitches in five innings, with eight strikeouts and two walks. Pitching to contact with wood in the future will help his efficiency, because ultimately you want a guy with an arm like this to be able to get consistently deep into major league games.

Vanderbilt’s Sonny Gray is the proverbial little guy with a big arm. Listed at 5-11, 195, there’s no question Gray’s fastball velocity plays. In the first inning, Gray was consistently 94-96. Most impressive was his fastball command to both halves with velocity as high as 96. For a short period of time in this game, Gray’s fastball command was better than Cole’s, but Cole’s fastball movement is superior to Gray’s.  

Gray’s best secondary pitch is his slider, which was very good in the first inning, sitting at 83-84 at its best. The slider lost a little luster beyond that, working at 81-83. He sometimes overthrows the pitch and it tends to flatten out at around 86. Gray has the ability to pitch between 83-84 and 93-94 and command both pitches, which makes him a danger.

For me, Gray threw too many sliders. You can kill a guy before he turns pro if he throws 80 percent sliders. Gray will probably evolve into a power sinker-slider kind of guy as he ages, but in this outing, I felt he spent too much time pitching to weaknesses and not enough time pitching to his strengths. He walked two and struck out six, retaining fastball velocity at 94 through his 4 1/3 innings and 81 pitches, but seemed out of sync by relying too much on sliders.

Gray’s arm speed is not a worry for me, nor is his arm action. These are his best gifts, but his lack of physicality will likely lead scouts to ask durability questions. His frame doesn’t allow for tremendous physical projection. Gray has a fast windup and breaks his hands fairly high. He’s smooth for a max-effort guy until his follow through, in which he lands drastically off to the first base side. In the coming years, Gray will have to show that he is durable despite his size and that his follow-through helps him more than it hurts him. His best chance for success in the coming years is to pitch with his fastball and develop a true third pitch to enhance his slider.

Watch Gerrit Cole 2009 Scouting Video
Read Gerrit Cole 2009 Scouting Report
Read Gerrit Cole 2009 Q&A
Watch Gerrit Cole vs. Grant Green from 2009

Categories: 2011 Draft, Ace vs. Ace
Tags: Gerrit Cole, Sonny Gray, UCLA, Vanderbilt