Scheppers can be in Texas’s bullpen tomorrow, but based on one very brief look, he’s not polished enough to be an effective and consistent starting pitcher.  Scheppers is a thrower with a great arm. He has a great body, long and loose, and is listed at 6-4, 200. His arm action is fairly smooth and he has physical projection, but he cannot command consistently enough to throw 180 big league innings and win right now.

His fastball worked at 94-96, with a few bumps to 97. This was purely a showcase outing for Scheppers, a way of showing he is healthy and in shape. His slider at 88 has a chance to be a very good and hard pitch if he can consistently shape and control it.

He has a change-up at 82 which is an average third pitch and not really a weapon at this point.

Here’s an indication of what Scheppers would encounter at the big league level with this array of stuff. His at-bat against Buster Posey is an example. Posey, offensively, doesn’t need to be in this league, but he’s here because he needs to catch. Scheppers commanded a fastball at 97 on the outside corner for strike one, Posey fouled back a fastball down the middle at 96 for strike two. Scheppers wasted a change-up in the dirt for ball one. Posey hit a hard ground ball to short for an out. Posey got off a gunshot against a 95 mph fastball, meaning he hit it hard, but Scheppers has some movement and got Posey to miss the good part of the bat.

In the big leagues, Scheppers is going to find more disciplined hitters than Posey, guys who are going to have longer than four and five pitch showcase at-bats. Scheppers has shown nothing to indicate he is ready to battle at that level. The quality of hitters found in the Arizona Fall League isn’t enough to say if a guy is ready. You have to scout the stuff, not the stats. Scheppers has the physical ability, but here’s the reality – big league hitters don’t care how hard you throw if you can’t put it where they can’t pull the trigger.

At that level, it’s going to be more than a game of ‘I throw hard, you swing hard.’ The big leagues are not scout ball. It will be more complicated than that, and despite his arm power, this outing shows no indication that he is ready for that. But there’s only one way to find out. I’m willing to bet Texas will see to it in 2010.  The prediction here is that he will be rushed and find immediate success in the big leagues, before he is caught up to.

When that happens, we’ll find out what kind of guy Scheppers is really going to be. He has the stuff, but he needs consistency and the innings to acquire the experience that he might not get because such a high investment has been placed in him and there will be pressure for an immediate return on the investment. This is what happens when bankers run baseball.

The window for learning will be very narrow, and for a period of time, his stuff is going to allow him to get away with mistakes and teach himself. But at some point, stuff won’t be enough, and we’ll need to see what kind of a pitcher he is, not what kind of a thrower. I hope he gets the time to develop, because if he does, Scheppers can be someone.