I have often said that this is the outing that got Rosin drafted where he was, fourth round, largely because of this regional Friday night outing at Cal State Fullerton. I’m not taking anything away from Rosin’s cumulative body of work as a college pitcher at Minnesota, but I know how the West Coast clubs scout, I have a feel for how they think, and I know how much weight this performance carried to a team like the Giants.

This was a look in which Rosin pounded away with his two-seam fastball, cut the plate in half, commanded above average, and threw his change-up. Out in pro ball this summer in the Northwest League, which I do know well (long story), he’s getting off his shoulder a little bit and learning to incorporate a harder slider as a much-needed third pitch to become a big league starter.

This outing was one of my favorite games from the pre-draft scouting trail in 2010, largely because Fullerton is an insanely difficult place to pitch for visiting teams, much less ones visiting from outside the Big West Conference. Fullerton is known for squeezing, fans that do their research, brisk beer sales, players that feed off it, and an all-around hard-nosed environment. There’s nothing wrong with it – I don’t mind – but you have to be able to recognize when a young player brings all his tools into a big game in a hostile environment.  Not many times do you see an amateur pitcher’s last outing serve as the precise stopping off point between amateur and pro ball. Sometimes they are better than they really are (at that stage) in that last look, and sometimes, they run out of gas and drop off. In this case, you got a guy at the end of one road and the start of another, pitching in a ballpark that often dead-ends.

Read Seth Rosin Update – NCAA Regional
Read May Seth Rosin Scouting Update
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Read Seth Rosin Update – NCAA Regional
Read May Seth Rosin Scouting Update
Read Seth Rosin Q&A
Watch Seth Rosin Video
Read Seth Rosin Scouting Report

Minnesota’s Seth Rosin is the classic and traditional Midwestern power arm right-hander. In this look, Rosin lacked the same power duration he had against Ohio State a few weeks ago, when he was 95 several times in the first three innings.

This look, however, was clearly more about pitch-ability, consistency, repitition and stamina than it was about only power. He also had very good fastball life throughout this outing. Rosin hit 94-95 in the first inning, and these have the hints of appeasing the radar guns as well as to keep the weapon in the back of an opposing lineup’s mind.

In this first inning against Fullerton, Rosin was 92-94 on guns inside the park and 93-95 (93) on the TV broadcast. Take your pick because there’s not much of a difference. Either way, he repeatedly overmatched Fullerton in the first inning, adjusted after the second, and spent the next five innings confusing them.

This was my first in-person look at Rosin since the Cape, when I saw him in Summer 2009 as a big-bodied right-hander working hard at 92-93. Over the summer, I saw projection. As Rosin shrinks, the velocity expands. He’s a big guy and you can’t miss it. At 6-foot-7 and 230, the first thing I noticed in the bullpen was that Rosin was trimmer. He’s still going to benefit from pro-level conditioning. He’ll never be a rail, but you don’t want that. Rosin’s strength is to be a big, innings-eating Midwestern ox. He’s an old-fashioned plow horse, physically built with wide hips, strong thighs and broad shoulders.

He shouldered the load in this eight-inning look, which showed a smooth, repetitive and closed delivery. Rosin is incredibly smooth for a tall and burly right-hander with above-average velocity. I felt his arm action was cleaner and less forced than when I saw him on my first look on the Cape.

The trick with Rosin is that he’s talented enough to be a major league starter, but he’s closer to the big leagues as a reliever because he lacks a breaking ball. The imaginative scout might dream about this guy with a breaking ball, with his plus command, winning big as a starter.

The impatient organizational man might say, give me the arm, give me the change-up, give me the control, and let me pay him cheap in the bullpen instead of overpaying some 30-year free agent. Both arguments have their merit, and Rosin complicates the issue, simply because he was so good with other weapons without his top velocity in a big game.

The first thing Rosin showed against Fullerton was improved conditioning and durability. He maintained his fastball velocity at 93-94 through four innings, 90-92 in the fifth and sixth, and 90-91 in the seventh and eighth. That’s not first round velocity, but that’s not the point in this evaluation. Rosin’s fastball command, especially of his two-seam fastball, was an 80 for much of this outing. His control allowed him to pummel the strike zone, move the box around, and attack with his fastball. Even without his true gas, Rosin still showed the ability to challenge hitters to beat him. Walk up to a big league hitter and ask him what the best pitch in baseball is. See if he doesn’t tell you that it’s a fastball on the black.

Rosin’s fastball control is so developed at this stage that it negates the need for a breaking ball in college baseball, which if he’s going to be a pro starter, he’s got to have. If you’re going to pitch out of the bullpen at the big league level, you need two pitches, but as former Arizona closer Jason Stoffel told Baseball Beginnings in 2009, “If you’re going to have two pitches, they better be pretty damn good.”

Rosin falls into the same category, with the caveat that his fastball command is the best right-handed power command I think I have seen in this draft cycle. It is by far the most consistent. That basically allows him to use his two-seam as one pitch, climb the ladder with the four-seam, and then reach back to his Midwestern roots, stamp his heel and snort, and throw high gas at the letters with a message that belies a baby face and says words I can’t print on this web site.

I have often said that velocity alone does nothing for me. I could absolutely care less if a guy throws 94 and throws below-average major league strikes. That is where million-dollar mistakes are made every year, and pitchers are oversold, underdeveloped, and fall off the vine long before they should have. Pitchers who throw hard and have no clue who are rushed to the big leagues are chum to those hitters. They make more money for hitters than they do for themselves.

Rosin’s change-up is a little bit more than bait. It was consistently 77-79 with sink in the middle of the plate. It’s more of a straight change with dive as it decelerates, but Rosin is developing a very good feel for arm slot and arm speed deception. He had the confidence to throw it in fastball counts. I didn’t see him hang any change-ups in this look. If you gave his fastball velocity a 60 grade in this look, you’d have to at least go 50 on the change.

The breaking ball here is a slurve that I thought Rosin didn’t have any interest in throwing, other than as a token look to back end hitters and a reminder that he has it. It was consistently 80-81, comes out of his hand like his change-up but is more of a fade-away to right-handers. The pitch lacked shape or power here, was thrown sparingly, and would be graded at a 40.

His at-bats against the automatic first-rounder, Christian Colon, were most telling about both Rosin and Colon. Rosin liberally used his change-up in order to set up the high fastballs. The selling point is Rosin consistently beat Colon with high gas. This is the hole in Colon’s swing. Long Beach’s Jake Thompson attacked him there and so did Rosin. Each guy got lazy fly balls to right field. And this is with metal. So Colon, as he continues, needs to shorten up and learn to line that pitch to right field and not try to pull and lift it.

As for Rosin, the question is what will lift him to the major leagues the fastest. He has told Beginnings that he likes closing, mainly because he knows that in short stints he’s got two extra miles on his fastball. So you could be talking about a 95-97 four-seam guy, a 93-94 two-seam guy with a put-away change-up at 77-79, above average command of the two-seam, and better command of the four-seam than most guys. That arsenal would remind me of Trevor Hoffman.

More importantly, closing might show you Rosin for what he really might want to be. He can give you seven precise innings. Or he can stamp his heel, snort, throw hard, and plow the ninth.

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Watch Seth Rosin Video
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In this look, Rosin was 95 several times in the first three innings. He pitched into the seventh inning and his velocity maintained enough for him to pitch comfortably at 93-95. His overall fastball command remains above-average and paired with his size, plane, firm front, gives him a very solid foundation from which to start a pro career.

His best secondary pitch in this look was a change-up at 79-80. Rosin is improving the pitch as the season progresses and it’s certainly more advanced than when I saw him on the Cape. The pitch has deception from release point, but also has dive to it, which gives him a workable second pitch with which to enter pro ball. His curveball, probably his least developed pitch at this stage, got a few strikeouts.

Read Seth Rosin Q&A
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Baseball Beginnings: Tell people from around the country a little bit about your background.
Rosin: You can’t play baseball year round like a lot of kids do because of the weather we have here, so you almost have to have another sport. For a lot of guys, it’s hockey, but for me it was basketball. It worked pretty well for me. As for baseball, I still feel pretty new to it. I might not have the highest baseball IQ, but I’m trying to learn. My pitching coach, Todd Oakes, has been a big part of helping me learn how to become a pitcher and not a thrower.

Baseball Beginnings: Was there a fork in the road between basketball and baseball?
Rosin: It was my junior year in high school. I always felt that being 6-4 I would be more talented in basketball. My senior year rolled around and I signed with Minnesota because they saw some projection in me. My fastball jumped about four or five miles an hour that spring and that’s when I started getting scouts asking me questions.

Baseball Beginnings: How tall were you as a senior?
Rosin: About 6-4.

Baseball Beginnings: They have you as 6-6 now, is that legit?
Rosin: Yeah, I might be closer to 6-7 now. I think I’ve grown maybe a half an inch since the summer. 

Baseball Beginnings: What secondary pitch do you have the most confidence in right now? Also, for a guy who says he’s so new to pitching, you seem to have awfully good control, which isn’t supposed to happen.
Rosin: I guess I was gifted with it from a pretty young age. Even when I was younger, throwing a football or even little backyard games, I always seemed to be able to hit the target. As far as baseball goes, I see the mitt and try to throw it at the mitt and that’s that. A lot of times, I hit the mitt. So I try to keep it simple and not think too much and just let the muscle memory take over.

Baseball Beginnings: When did you realize you had that ability?
Rosin: My freshman year at Minnesota. I had like 15 walks in 50 innings and realized I could be pretty successful with that aspect of the game.

Baseball Beginnings: How has your fastball developed from your freshman year to now?
Rosin: I was probably 87-89 and would occasionally get to 90-91 as a freshman. By the next year, I was up to 93, 94, 95 in games. At the Cape, it’s as good as it’s been and that’s where its stayed. I was probably 91-94 most starts and hitting 95 on some guns. My arm has felt pretty good and pretty healthy. I know some people have talked about me going in a bullpen role. Whatever a team wants me to do, I think I’ll feel comfortable. I think I still have some gas in the tank yet.

Baseball Beginnings: So are you hearing closer?
Rosin: A lot of people are projecting me as a late-inning guy because of arm strength and size. I like being a starter, but I think it would be cool to come out of the bullpen.

Baseball Beginnings: I know you’d do whatever they told you to do, but if I said, here Seth, go seven every five or be the closer, what would you pick?
Rosin: I think if I had a call I think being a closer would be a little bit more enticing for me. I love starting, but I think being a closer would be my dream role.

Baseball Beginnings: If they’re talking closer, that usually means one plus-pitches and one below-average weapon. So what are the plus pitches and what needs to get better?
Rosin: I guess right now, my best secondary pitch is my change-up. I’ve got good command of it and it has some dive on it. Not a lot of late inning guys have the change-up. I think my curveball is coming along. I think that’s why I’ve been more successful as a starter because I’ve had command of all three pitches. I don’t have that hard tight slider yet that a lot of late-inning guys have. My stuff is more suitable for starting right now.

Baseball Beginnings: How does the curveball look at this stage; in terms of shape, power?
Rosin: It’s pretty slurvey. It’s like 78-81, 82-83 sometimes. I tried a slider for a while that was like 81-85. I could command it, but I felt more comfortable with the curveball. It has more depth to it so I stuck with that.

Watch Seth Rosin Scouting Video
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Seth Rosin, RHP
6-6, 240
University of Minnesota
Games Seen: 1, Innings: 5

PHYSICAL DESCRIPTION: Big body, broad shoulders, wide hips, strong thighs and lower half. Durable frame.

STRENGTHS: Two-seam FB 90-92, four-seem 92-94. Average FB command, hard life on two-seam, more room in arm for four-seem. Generates drop-and-drive power, still learning to get full extension. Competitor with resilient arm and mound presence.

WEAKNESSES: CB 72-76, needs to continue developing shape and rotation. CH 81-84, rough makings of third pitch, didn’t use much in my outing. Needs to raise overall command enough to eliminate deeper pitch counts and give himself best chance. Needs to continue conditioning.

SUMMARY: Should become durable, innings-eating ML starter with enough power. A little bit raw, but has room for development in final college season and as pro. Arm and body type give him chance to make it; secondary pitch development and consistency will give him chance to stay. Good luck in 2010 and beyond.

GRADES (Present/Future):
Fastball         65/65
Curveball     40/50
Change-up   40/50
Command    60/60
Control          60/60

Overall Future Potential: 57

What the Grades Mean

Jackie Bradley Jr. is a little left-handed hitting outfielder who gives you four above-average tools in contact, speed, arm strength and outfield defense. The only glaring hole in his game is power, but that’s not the kind of player he is. Playing on the Cape after his freshman year, Bradley made contact with authority and put the ball in play. Bradley (South Carolina) reminds me of Chone Figgins all the way around.

Right-hander Seth Rosin pitched at 90-92 with room for a bump to 93. He had 38 strikeouts in 33 innings and gave up 33 hits. Rosin’s frame is conducive to a big-body durable, middle-rotation, right-handed starter. He’ll take his strong summer with him back to Minnesota and has the ability to pitch himself into a good round in June 2010.

Ryan Cuneo isn’t going to be a big-name college guy in 2010 because he plays for Delaware, but the left-handed hitting Blue Hens first baseman has some ability to work with. Cuneo has a balanced stride and power potential. He’s a gap-to-gap guy with a long and lean frame that has some room to fill out. Cuneo might be more of the Mark Grace type, but that’s going to be enough for him to get a look in the 2010 draft.

Cody Hawn will immediately be dismissed by some scouts who don’t care for his Kirby Puckett-type body, and while I don’t generally like guys with that frame, I can’t ignore the fact that Hawn can hit. A better comparison might be Matt Stairs, a comparison I’m sure Hawn (Tennessee) has heard more than once. Hawn is the kind of player who is going to have to hit above expectations at every level because he’s always going to be looked at as a guy who shouldn’t be there because of his body type. Guys who can swing and who have to fight this sometimes find their way to the big leagues, though it’s a sure bet that he’ll have to be in the right place at the right time. Hawn is going to be drafted in 2010 and a good comparison for him might be Paul McAnulty, who came from Long Beach State and did play in the major leagues.

Kyle Blair, RHP, UC San Diego
Big guy, big arm, finding consistency.

Seth Blair, RHP, Arizona State
Leake has left; Blair is in the building.

Jake Buchanan, RHP, NC State
Used Cape to make people wonder why he wasn’t on Team USA.

Brian Dupra, RHP, Notre Dame
Classic college closer, hard-throwing, RHP, 90-93.

Matt Evers, LHP, Rice
Forgettable 2008 college season, good summer, 88-92 FB, SL, CH, bullpen help at the worst, starter at best.

Kevin Gelinas, LHP, UC Santa Barbara
89-92 LHP with big body, some power to CB, much projection.

Matt Grace, LHP, UCLA
Buried as a Bruin, he’s going to get a better shot as a pro; FB 89-91, shown gradual improvement.

AJ Griffin, RHP, San Diego
Big 6-5 durable body developing 90-93 FB command with put-away SL, had great summer.

Jesse Hahn, RHP, Vanderbilt
DNS on Cape, but he raised his stock.

Matt Harvey, RHP, North Carolina
Another year, another first rounder from this rotation, another rush to the big leagues.

Taylor Hill, RHP, Vanderbilt
DNS on Cape but was talk of Chatham.

Sean Hoelscher, RHP, Texas Christian
Showed a lot to like on Cape; durable frame, good arm action/speed, aptitude, depth of stuff. While you’re lusting for UT pitchers, don’t forget this guy.

Mario Hollands, LHP, UC Santa Barbara
Sinker-slider slinger type got results with stuff in summer.

John Lambert, LHP, NC State
Once, twice, three times a draft-eee; hoping this is the year he puts consistency to 6-5, 220 frame and 89-92 FB.

Tyler Lyons, LHP, Oklahoma State
Out to prove Yankees goofed; CH and plus 89-91 FB command are his weapons. 

Aaron Meade, LHP, Missouri State
Pitched well on Cape; liked arm; would have liked sharper breaking ball.

Mike Nesseth, RHP, Nebraska
Passed up Angels, set to close again for Huskers, needs consistency with power stuff.

Addison Reed, RHP, San Diego State
Top-shelf college closer will be close to big leagues when he comes out of college.

Rob Rasmussen, LHP, UCLA
Don’t judge this LHP by his size: FB 90-93, put-away CB, CH to keep RHH honest.

Ben Rowen, RHP, Virginia Tech
Small school SoCal HS guy turned into 6-4 closer will find his way into the draft.

Seth Rosin, RHP, Minnesota
Big body, durable arm, has makings of everyday ML RHP if it all comes together.

Chris Sale, LHP, Florida Gulf Coast
Not a household name. Come June, he will be.

Jake Thompson, RHP, Long Beach State
Power arm who will benefit from Troy Buckley’s return and basically a summer off wilting in Chatham.